We’re just three days away from Wednesday’s trade deadline, and yet there are still a number of successful events to complete.
We know that big deals historically take until the 11th hour before clubs negotiate and hang on as long as they can. And this year, we could be in for an unprecedented amount of star-studded futures.
Below foxfooty.com.au analyzes and predicts how the 10 largest remaining trades of the trade period will get over the line.
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JOSH DUNKLEY TO BRISBANE
The Western Bulldogs have been left frustrated in recent trade talks with the Lions as the Dunkley deal has hit an impasse. There were reportedly initial discussions about the Dogs landing the Lions’ Pick 15 and a future first-round selection, however Brisbane reportedly wanted two second-rounders (30 and 39) and a third player back in the trade. The Lions then decided to trade their 15th pick with the Giants to accumulate more draft points to help them land the father-son duo of Will Ashcroft and Jasp Fletcher, hurting their chances of landing Dunkley. SEN reported the Dogs were “furious” and are now prepared to let Dunkley go in the pre-season draft – a suggestion Dunkley manager Liam Pickering said was “ridiculous” while remaining “confident” a deal would be done. Something has to give, with the Dogs and Lions needing to meet in the middle of the originally discussed swap.
Statement: The Bulldogs receive pick 21, a future first-round pick and a future second-round pick – the Lions receive Dunkley, pick 29 and a future third-round pick.
How will Dunkley get to the Lions? | 02:09
LUKE JACKSON TO FREMANTLE
Another deal that is deadlocked after Melbourne turned down Fremantle’s Pick 13 and future first-rounder bid for the young gun. The Demons are said to be looking for a top seven and a future first rounder or two top 10s – both of which the Dockers clearly don’t have. West Coast remains in the picture as Jackson requested a move back to Western Australia, not Fremantle specifically, however the Eagles are not considered a genuine landing spot for the former Rising Star winner and premiership player. The Dockers equivalent of getting a Pick 13 to Pick 7 is around 400 draft points – or a pick in the early 40s – so adding such a pick is another potential means of closing a deal and seems the most obvious at this stage. Regardless, you’d think this would go down to the wire.
Statement: Demons receive pick 13, future first-round pick and future third-round pick (Kangaroo-bound) – Dockers receive Jackson.
Dees wants top 10 picks for Jackson | 02:55
BRODY GRUNDY TO MELBOURNE
Collingwood decided to pick Grundy in the top 25, with $300,000 of his salary worth around $1 million until 2025, overturning Melbourne’s bid for pick 27 received in a pick swap with the Power. Reports suggest the Grundy trade may have to wait until the Demons complete a deal with the Dockers for Luke Jackson, which would likely mean Melbourne bringing in Pick 13 and a future first-rounder. There have been whispers that the Magpies could be looking for a tip-off that would see them receive Pick 13 and 27 from Melbourne in exchange for Grundy and Pick 16. Alternatively, the Pies could be looking for a future first-rounder lined up by Fremantle or Melbourne to attach Pick 41. 50 future third rounder at 27.
Statement: The Magpies receive pick 13 (tied with Fremantle), the Demons receive Grundy and pick 27.
JASON HORNE-FRANCIS TO PORT ADELAIDE
North Melbourne and Port Adelaide will resume talks about the former Pick 1 on Monday, according to Channel 7, and will discuss whether other teams need to join the trade. It comes after a massive four-team deal, including GWS and West Coast, fell apart after it was rejected by the AFL, which would have seen future Power deals pick in rounds one and two, with the Roos getting picks 2 and 3 and retired 1. League rules state that clubs cannot trade multiple future picks for their future first-rounder. And so it’s back to square one, although the quadruple deal could still be reworked with some tweaks. The Giants remain a live chance to get involved given their rich selection, while West Coast hold a valuable card at Pick 2 and West Coast’s Junior Rioli is looking to make it to Alberton.
Statement: Kangaroos get picks 2 and 3, Power get Horne-Francis and Rioli, Giants get picks 1, Eagles get picks 8 and 12.
GWS is interested in picking 1 | 02:49
JACOB HOPPER TO RICHMOND
Richmond and Greater Western Sydney initially made a Tim Taranto deal impossible because it was easier to negotiate because Taranto was out of contract – for Hopper it’s a different story. After giving up the No. 12 and No. 19 picks for Taranto, the Tigers have less to play with for Hopper, which is why the player was discussed as part of the deal. Ivan Soldo passed his medical with the Giants, while the Tigers all but ruled out a trade for Hugo Ralphsmith. The center of the deal will be the No. 31 pick and a future first-rounder, but that might not be enough, so a player is added.
Statement: The Giants receive Pick 31, a future first round pick and Ivan Soldo – The Tigers receive Hopper.
OLLIE HENRY GEELONG
The Cats and Pies had very little common ground to begin the trade period when it came to Ollie Henry. An initial offer of pick #38 was made by Pies officials for the former top 20 draft pick. The Cats no longer have the No. 18 pick — traded for Tanner Bruhn — while the future second-round pick went out the door in a pick swap with the Lions. The pick Geelong received as part of that deal – No.25 – is likely to be the next draft. Since the Cats traded away a future second-round pick, they no longer have their future first-rounder to trade. They are expected to bring in the No. 7 pick as part of the deal for Jack Bowes. They want to take No. 7 in the draft, but the Pies will no doubt ask them to split it or trade it to them in exchange for Henry and a later first-round pick. In terms of later picks, The Cats don’t have much to play for.
Statement: Magpies receive Pick 25 – Cats receive Henry.
Will the Cats trade them and get caught by Henry? | 01:39
TOM MITCHELL COLLINGWOOD
Collingwood has plenty of other priorities over Tom Mitchell right now – among them closing deals for Brodie Grundy and Ollie Henry. Mitchell is looking for more minutes in the midfield and he would get them at Koláče. The option Collingwood must give up for Mitchell will depend on the salary split between the two clubs for the final year of Mitchell’s contract with Hawthorn. Collingwood will be reluctant to give up anything close to their No.16 pick. Even if they get No.25 pick in exchange for Ollie Henry, they won’t want to part with that for Mitchell. Something around the 41 and 50 mark might have to do for the Hawks if they want to clear cap space and Mitchell wants to move. These two tips are equivalent to tip #28 in value.
Statement: Hawks receive picks 41 and 50 – Magpies receive Mitchell.
RORY LOBB TO THE WESTERN BULLDOGS
Fremantle have publicly refused to entertain the idea of trading Rory Lobb but still have a chance to play for the Western Bulldogs in 2023. Lobb may be under contract at the Dockers for next year, but his future effectively depends on Luke Jackson hitting the mark when the trade period is complete. The Dockers and Dees continue to haggle over Jackson’s value and that has delayed several deals this trade period, not the least of which is Brodie Grundy’s move to Melbourne. Lobb’s future is also dependent on the trade the Dogs make with Brisbane for Josh Dunkley, given that one of the picks picked up in that deal could be used to land Lobb. Again, the pick used depends on how much of Lobb’s salary the Psi cover in 2023, but the Psi would be very reluctant to pass up a top 20 pick for a player approaching 30.
Statement: Dockers receive Pick 30 – Bulldogs receive Lobb.
IZAK RANKINE ADELAIDE CROWS
It’s a surprise that Rankine isn’t yet a Crow as the South Australian requested a trade at the end of August – and the heart of the deal has reportedly centered around the Gold Coast’s Pick 5 for some time. Reports this week said the two clubs were closing in on a deal that would see The Crows will get Rankine and a late pick in this year’s draft in exchange for Pick 5, a future third and a future fourth. There could have been some back-and-forth over which late pick Adelaide would get, or the Suns simply decided to use the weekend to sleep. Either way, you feel it will be one of the first completed on Monday.
Statement: The Suns receive pick 5, a future third baseman and a future fourth baseman – the Crows receive Rankine and pick 52 (tied with the Magpies).
“Best or worst thing” for Rankine | 03:49
JUNIOR RIOLI TO PORT ADELAIDE
West Coast are willing to let Junior Rioli go in the pre-season draft if he doesn’t get what he wants. The Eagles want Port’s Pick 8 after the Eagles rejected second-round pick Port as compensation from free agent Karl Amon, but the Power are adamant Rioli is not in the cards. The impasse has led to both clubs engaging in a Horne-Francis trade, which appears to be the most likely way to deal with Rioli. If it were to remain separate, a second-round pick is generally considered the best deal, but the Eagles have also tried to lure players. There are reports that the Eagles have questioned both Mitch Georgiades and Dan Houston, but the Force remain steadfast in their message that the player will not be on the table for the Rioli deal. Xavier Duursma is another name that came up, but that was quickly shut down.
Verdict (as above in the Horne-Francis Agreement): Eagles get picks 8 and 12, Kangaroos get picks 2 and 3, Power gets Horne-Francis and Rioli, Giants get pick 1.
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