11/03/2022 Horse Racing Tips & Best Bets – Flemington VRC Oaks Day

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Cup Week at Flemington continues on Thursday with nine races headlined by the Kennedy Oaks (2500m). Weather is nice, track soft (6) and rails TBA.

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Back me

This race has some depth. I enjoy it in every way 12 Tahlequah (Bet now: $7.00). He flies to the Price/Kent camp and the Blinkers on I love. Both races this time came to Pakenham on Synthetic and really caught the eye. She was the favorite last start but she was back in the race where they were going so she had no chance. Hard fit now up to 1700m, Blinkers, massive jockey upgrade, she’s a bet.

Danger

7 Matron Bullwinkel (Bet now: $4.80) is the main threat. She continued over 1400m on Geelong Cup Day where she got too far back in a pace-controlled affair but was very well behind Lafargue late and set the best late splits of the race. J Mac na, the race is on and she’s hard to beat.

Long shot

Back to the trip I like 14 Cabaca (Bet now: $11.00). Chris Waller was training a filly who was on the way to the Oaks but didn’t shoot in the Ethereal so those plans were scrapped. After a run like that, you’d assume she’s going for a spell, but the fact that she’s running here tells me she’s bounced back from that run and is ready to go.

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Back me

Here is a speck for me in every way 17 Zousuko (Bet now: $12.00), daughter of Zoustar on debut for John McArdle. She has had several Mornington jumps to prepare for the first, winning both. What I liked about both hits was that when asked for effort, the response was good. That’s a good sign to see in an early pup, so I’ll take a chance on her.

Danger

12 Empress of Miracles (Bet now: $4.80) is a Choisir daughter for Annabel Neasham making her debut and looks to be doing quite well. The lone trial came at Warwick Farm a couple of weeks ago where she moved very well to look at, looked to win and ran a solid time. Drawn to get clean air and has a J Mac.

Long shot

September 16 Tabata (Bet now: $31.00) is a Maher/Eustace mare making her debut. She had a trial at Warwick Farm Poly in early October where she led throughout and gave them a beating with consistent speed coming to the fore. A jump/run type that seems like the ideal pattern for this kind of race.

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Back me

12 Climbing star (Bet now: $4.80) is a filly with good talent for Phillip Stokes. A dominant debut win over 1200m at Cranbourne before going to a mile in the Fillies Classic on Cox Plate Day and that big jump in the way, worse ground… run that race again and I think he’ll win. She has a better set up now, she gets C Williams, down to the weights…she’s the one for me.

Danger

8 Roots (Bet now: $2.10) flies for Chris Waller. Put together a couple of sharp wins in midweek Sydney before going to Tesio on Cox Plate Day and she should have won. I had to make her run on the worst ground and that eventually beat her when she was second to My Whisper. J Mac is back and with miles under his belt, he’s calling for the big time.

Long shot

Gary Portelli ran second in this race last year and wants to do even better 2 Arctic Thunder (Bet now: $15.00). She ran in the Five Diamonds Prelude at Randwick where she was given a cheap run of speed by Ellsberg but just didn’t have the class to go late with them. The blinkers go off and she gets J Kah to drive so she’s in with a shout because she’s good enough to be dangerous.

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Back me

12 Gray River (Bet now: $5.50) returned in backorder for Jon O’Connor. A dominant first-up win fresh off the Gawler but have improved significantly and were given an absolute thrashing at Parks a couple of weeks ago to win by more than seven lengths, looking like a Stakes-class horse. He keeps his form, wins again.

Danger

11 Hell Hath No Fury (Bet now: $12.00) looks hard to beat for Danny O’Brien. At Sandwon, she ran in the Jim Moloney and closed her race late, just missing out on the win when a close third behind Waltz On By. I avoided the Guineas to be saved for this race and I think that decision will pay off as we show forward here.

Long shot

14 Rosette (Bet now: $17.00) is a mare that I think has ability. I just looked like he needed a run as I continued on to the Hawkesbury. In Reginald Allen, I thought I found the line really well behind A Lot More Love. It fits now, I think he likes it.

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Back me

I’m a fan 16 Glory Bound (Bet now: $00 SP.00) and she is sure that she can measure up here. A former Kiwi mare who was strong in two Australian runs as a filly. At Sandown, fresh off Pascer, she caught the eye before going to Caulfield and was strong from behind when third to Sirileo Miss. Loved her on the trip, harder cut, more track, down in weight…just runs well.

Danger

12 holy Bathans (Bet now: $4.20) is going in the right direction and thinks he can win again. A lovely ride from Holland saw him win a mile at Caulfield a few weeks ago. He lobbed to 1/1 and wasn’t beaten from the right path. Proven on this trip to NZ, 1800m is fine and has upside.

Long shot

13 Shibli (Bet now: $17.00) could have wanted one more, but the return was encouraging. That came at Sandown on Underwood Day, where he warmed to the task late in a good comeback behind Pascero. Maybe want one more and a third at 2000m is his aim but I’m not ruling him out of another run as it was good.

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Back me

Why not 5 Joyful happiness (Bet now: $3.70) more dominant favorite? He was the first to prove himself to be an elite straight horse. He was then thrown into the deep end in the Everest and indeed, given the speed, did a remarkable job of being beaten by just under five lengths. If it didn’t break him… he’ll win for sure.

Danger

3 Zoustiles (Bet now: $3.60) will jump on the bunny and it will be difficult to escape. He was really like that in Schillaci and tried his guts but couldn’t quite finish it off when he was third behind Paulel. Short course racing is his life and I think the 1000m straight will suit his jump/run style.

Long shot

I think the climb up to 1000m is ideal for 12 Taunts (Bet now: $00 SP.00). He ran over 955m at Manikato Night at The Valley where he didn’t get to the green when he needed to and I think he wins with clean air instead of a close second to Direct. Like him on the trip and with constant speed, he will give a great view.

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Back me

2 Fasting (Bet now: $14.00) is a question for miles, but I think it’s a good time to try it. He went on to the 1400m at Horsham where he had suction for speed before getting an inside split and the class came to the fore with a dominant win. He will roll forward from wide gate, 1/1 second up and is tough, especially when he gets cheap speed.

Danger

14 Toregene (Bet now: $6.00) is a key threat. Best finish went to Matty Williams trained mare who went on to Cranbourne where she had an A1 pass before getting some clean air and a ride. Interesting that the Blinkers are off and the Winkers continue, but again she has the advantage/advance and the ideal map.

Long shot

10 Liability (Bet now: $71.00) is a stupid chance in my opinion. The first run for Aaron Purcell came at Hamilton over the bog mile, a setup that was terrible when he was with Waller, but he found the line very well late on when second to Bookman. Fitter, on a firmer deck…certainly runs just fine.

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Back me

He was hot 3 Renaissance woman (Bet now: $9.00) to this race for a few months and won’t drop out. I thought her ride in the Spring Champion was better than She’s Extreme as she bombed the start, was forced back, widest in the corner in the worst terrain and still found the line. The ethereal win was dominant…seems like a two horse race and IMO this girl is the better bet for the price.

Danger

It wouldn’t shock me at all if 1 It is extreme (Bet now: $2.60) came out and won it by 5+ lengths. He should have won the spring championship, but Schofield didn’t give him anything. Shocking ride and she did a remarkable job to get as close as she did. Gate one, it doesn’t work, it’s hard to beat.

Long shot

5 Foxy Cleopatra (Bet now: $9.50) is for exotics. This filly was a cocky winner at The Valley two years later before she went to Ethereal where she ran with Renaissance Woman but was held by the filly on the line so I doubt she will turn the tables but looks to be a 2500m penalty.

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Back me

18 Greece (Bet now: $3.50) is a very good filly for the Maher/Eustace camp. She’s a lovely sort who I think has a Group I engine. She went on to the Geelong girl where she gave them an absolute thrashing from the front and ran a really good time without being extended by Jamie Kah. Destined for better races than this, keen on her chances, provided the track is not too affected by the rain.

Danger

5 Exo Lady (Bet now: $11.00) has class and is tough. Continued at Eagle Farm over 1000m a few weeks ago where she got back into the running and worked strongly on the line, looked like a winner but was first up, fitness just gave way. Better to run, she rolls forward and gets spanked.

Long shot

9 Ojai (Bet now: $14.00) deserves another look. I had a lot of interest in her at Scarborough in The Valley but things didn’t go her way and it was just a messy race for Queen Of The Ball. He hasn’t quite continued that since his fresh run, but if he brings it here, he’s in the mix.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 18 Greece

NEXT BEST: Race number 12 Tahlequah

LONG SHOT: Race eight number 3 renaissance woman

Tips for ATVs (races six to nine):

First leg: 1, 3, 5, 12

Second part: 2, 5, 10, 13, 14

Third section: 13

Fourth part: 18

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